Asif Ali Zardari Has Clear Edge In Election Race
Thursday, August 28, 2008 at 9:46 am Under Pakistan Breaking news, Pakistan News 8 views
ISLAMABAD:The split in two main parties in the coalition government has culminated in the emergence of two top presidential candidates - Asif Zardari from the Pakistan People’s Party and former chief justice Saeed-uz-Zaman Siddiqui from the Pakistan Muslim League (N). The opposition, consisting of the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), has fielded its Secretary General Mushahid Hussain Syed for the post.
The numbers game has begun with all the parties proactively campaigning for their candidate of choice. Interestingly, while the PML (N) is talking of merit, high moral ground, supported by the past history of its candidate as its campaign strategy, the PPP is “comfortable” with the numbers on their side, as stated by Information Minister Sherry Rehman.
The president’s electoral college consists of 702 members. There are 342 in the National Assembly, 100 in the Senate, while all the four provinces have 65 votes each. While the Punjab Assembly, with greater numbers, with 6.5 MPAs equal to one electoral vote, Sindh with 2.58 members equals to one vote, Balochistan’s each MPA has one vote and NWFP 1.90 members equal one vote.
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman, criticising Asif Zardari’s statements about political agreements, linked his party’s votes with ending of the operation in tribal areas. He jolted the PPP high command into offering him two more ministries. The new verdict of support to the PPP Co-Chairman has brought him clearly on the side of the PPP.
The PPP has a total strength of 217.5 - National Assembly: 124; Senate: 10; Punjab Assembly: 18.77; Sindh: 36.04; Balochistan: 134; and NWFP: 15.78. Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), firmly allied with PPP, has a total strength of 50.76 - National Assembly: 25; Senate: six; and Sindh Assembly: 19.76. The JUI (F) total strength 36.3 - National Assembly: seven; Senate: 12; NWFP: 7.3; and Balochistan: 10.
Awami National Party (ANP) total strength of 44.26 - National Assembly: 13; Senate: two; Sindh: one; and NWFP: 25.26; and Balochistan: three. Thus with its allies, the PPP has a total strength of 348. The PML (N) has a 131 strong vote bank - National Assembly: 91; Senate: four; Punjab Assembly: 30; NWFP: four; and Balochistan: one.
It is expected that Jamaat-i-Islami with 5.5 elecotral votes and Balochistan National Party (BNP) with 10 votes, Pukhtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party with three and National Peoples Party (NPP) 2.2 would give the PML (N) candidate a grand total of 151 votes. The PML (Q) has a 119-vote strength - National Assembly: 54; Senate: 38; Punjab assembly: 14.7; Sindh 3.48; NWFP: 3.15; and Balochistan: six.
With addition of one, i. e. PPP (Sherpao), totalling 7.15, and 13 from like-minded members in Balochistan would give a total of 139. If the PML (N) and (Q) field one candidate, then their total strength reaches a respectable 290. This does not take account of independents with 45 electoral votes plus PML (Functional), JUI (S), JWP and National Peoples Party with a total of 13 votes. If all these go with the PML (N), then is the grand total of 348, which could tie the two candidates. But to achieve this total would require hectic lobbying on the part of PML (N).
The PML (N) on its own cannot present a serious challenge to Asif Zardari’s candidacy. If the PML (Q) decides to support PML (N) presidential candidate and withdraws its own, an additional 139 votes would give a grand total of still not be sufficient to challenge the candidacy of Zardari.
There is speculation that if a secret ballot is held, an option, provided under Article 41 (3) of the Constitution for the presidential election, it may provide an edge to former chief justice Siddiqui over Asif Zardari. At present, Asif Zardari has a vote bank of at least 348, but in case of secret ballot, Amin Fahim and other disgruntled PPP stalwarts, who have been sidelined by Asif Zardari after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, may opt to vote for his rival.
Fahim is said to have some clout with Senators, MNAs and MPAs of the party and may subvert the candidacy of his party’s Co-Chairman. However, Fahim has announced his support for the PPP Co-Chairman and is unlikely to renege on his promise in an open ballot. The winner requires at least 352 votes in the 702-member electoral college. However, with three or more candidates in the running, the person bagging the highest number of votes will be declared the victor.
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