Clinton’s West Virginia Primary Win: Significant Or Meaningless?
Wednesday, May 14, 2008 at 5:05 pm Under World News
It had been predicted all week that Senator Hilllary Clinton would win the West Virginia primary by a whopping margin. Some said such a victory, highlighting flaws in front-runner Senator Barack Obama’s coalition, could make Superdelgates think twice while others others said it would be too late. So what has changed?
Media reports generally echoed this article by McClatchy Newspapers:
Hillary Clinton clobbered Barack Obama in West Virginia Tuesday, but her late win in a small state likely did little to slow rival Barack Obama’s march toward the Democratic presidential nomination.
Clinton won the overwhelmingly white state in a walk — by a landslide margin of 2-1, according to exit polls — and used the results to argue that Americans shouldn’t count her out yet.
So did it mean something or not?
That clearly depends on who you support.
With the exception of professional political analysts who strictly point to the delegate numbers so far and what is need to win nomination, many Clinton’s supporters say the big win is a potential game changer, while Clinton’s foes and Obama supporters insist it doesn’t change the total picture.
A look at weblog opinion gives a good snap-shot of this passionate, polarizing race — a race where each side’s reality is the other side’s denial.
Here’s a cross section of differing blog opinion on Clinton’s win and what it means:
–Matthew Yglesias:
Her campaign is rescued from the dead. As the Clinton campaign sagely points out “no Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916″ and therefore Obama’s primary loss shows that despite his large lead in the polls over John McCain, he can’t possible win the election.
What’s even more interesting is that no Democrat has won the White House without carrying Minnesota since 1912 (it went for Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose party) so given that Obama won Minnesota and Clinton won West Virginia, McCain is guaranteed to win the general election unless the eventual nominee can somehow completely replicate the social and political conditions prevailing in pre-WWI America.
My own sense is that WV voters are conservative and risk-averse and Obama suffered a great deal from unfamiliarity. Race compounded it; and if you listen to Fox News, Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, you’re likely to believe that Obama is a Muslim, racist, terrorist communist… For what it’s worth, I felt her victory speech was pretty obviously angling for the vice-presidency. Cuomo just put his weight behind the idea. I’m not sure, whatever the objective merits of the case, I could bear listening to her any longer.
Support Hillary!
No negotiation. All the way. Vice president? Keep it. Clinton’s in it to win it. You don’t like it? Beat her.
Obama hasn’t closed the deal. Period.
But to give some perspective, Chuck Todd was just on MSNBC saying that there are 189 pledged delegates left after tonight. For Clinton to overtake Obama, she’d have to win 172 of those delegates or 91%. So congratulations on Hillary’s victory tonight, but it doesn’t matter. Barack Obama is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party.
Remember New Hampshire? Rally, baby, it’s full steam ahead.
Big media outlets already calling it for Hillary. Take your bets here on the point spread. And drink every time an Obama supporter calls the state’s Democrats racists.
Obama may not even break 30 percent, despite being practically anointed with the nomination?!?! Look, this is a partisan blog. Nearly everyone will come around to supporting the nominee here, but if Obama doesn’t recognize the serious problem this presents in the world offline, and his supporters as well, I am speechless (which may not be a bad thing considering).
–Pajamas Media’s Vodkapundit aka Stephen Green did his famous “live blogging” (a must read as always) and summarizes it this way:
Here it is: Hillary’s big, big win. The Obama camp will point out that West Virginia doesn’t really matter, because he already has the nomination all but sewn up, that it’s just a “distraction” from bigger contests, and that WV is filled with crackers, anyway. Although the language they’ll use will be a bit more discreet.
The Clinton campaign will say West Virginia matters, precisely because it’s filled with white people just like all the other white people who won’t vote for Obama in the fall. And that’s pretty much exactly the language they’ll use.
Meanwhile, race continues to be the determining factor in the formerly colorblind Democratic party…
Perhaps Clinton just continues to rock on until June 3rd, then using the dual bargaining power of being both a potentially destructive annoyance to the party throughout the summer and the idea that the party owes her for having energized new voters and for her potential to keep blue-collar types within the ranks.
Does she settle on one of these bargaining chips– either the diligent party servant or the dangerous candidate scorned? I think we all know which might suit her better.
And, at what point is her bargaining power greatest? Does she ever lose her leverage, or are the Clintons so powerful that regardless of her behavior, she’s guaranteed a pay-out or a position at the end of all this? Thoughts, guys? The clock is a-tickin’ on this thing. Just thinking out loud.
…Hillary Clinton is getting a pretty bad rap from the media following her win in West Virginia. At this time, it looks like she might win by as much as 30 points.
Sure, it may be all but impossible for her to win, but as Geraghty points out, Obama failed once again to attract the demographic he’s going to need to win key states in November. The superdelegates may be slowly moving Obama’s way, but the lack of overwhelming support indicates that many may still have doubts about his ability to win.
Is this win in West Virginia really that tremendous considering the uphill battle Obama had to overcome based on the makeup of the population there? Well at least it will give us 2 more visits from the Clinton’s even despite their $20 million campaign shortfall and few prospects of getting the nomination.
The real winner here is McCain. The exit polls and Obama’s incredibly poor performance here point to weaknesses that McCain can exploit. McCain can also continue to chill out while Hillary and Obama slug it out a while longer.
And then I remember how much worse this could be, and that while all the spin and hysterical reporting and watching the Clinton supporters act as though this changes everything is annoying, it’s also quite necessary.
Yes, the more rabid the Clinton supporters seem, the more contentious the Clinton campaign comes off, the better.
Give me more.
Because as bad as a loss like this may appear, it would be a whole hell of a lot worse if Obama had lost this bad unopposed. Thus, nights like this are little more than an unpleasant necessity, a rough spot that must be endured while we wait for this contest to be officially over.
–Presidential Politics for America:
As predicted by everyone, Hillary Clinton is projected to win West Virginia by a large margin.
Hillary Clinton is currently giving a speech that is simply all of her talking points onto one piece of paper…Nothing new. So, in the spirit of Clinton, I will offer nothing new in this post. Nothing has changed. Refer to today’s post to see where she goes from here.
Hillary Clinton just trounced Barack Obama in West Virginia. She’s giving a fired up speech from Charleston. And she’s not going anywhere.
I’m struck by the crowd in the background, all white except for an African American dude in a doo-rag. They’ve also got some kind of doofus in a windbreaker holding a bowling pin aloft.
I’ve admired Clinton’s fighting spirit for much of this campaign. On stylistic grounds, it’s almost bordering on self-parody.
She won in every category. Clean sweep. Way to go West Virginia!
I would like to just revel in the victory for a day, but I don’t think there is time…..It just demonstrates why so many Hillary supporters are mad as hell, and aren’t going to take it anymore!
Hey, they found the one black guy in West Virginia to stand behind Clinton. What are the odds?
Cartoon by Larry Wright, The Detroit News
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