Inflation may fall to 9 pc in March ’08: RBI survey

Saturday, August 2, 2008 at 4:08 am

Inflation is likely to remain above 11 per cent this year and may come down to around 9 per cent by March next year, says a survey of economists conducted by the Reserve Bank.

“The estimate for wholesale price-based inflation on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2008-09 is projected to be 9.2 per cent,” the survey said.

In its quarterly review of monetary policy on July 29, the RBI said it would take all efforts to bring down inflation to 7 per cent by the end of current fiscal from the present level of around 12 per cent.

The survey approached 31 forecasters, though 20 participants responded, for projections on growth, inflation, savings and other indicators.

According to the survey, inflation is likely to remain in double digits for the next two quarters, with forecast for the second and the third quarter at 11.7 and 11.4 per cent respectively. Inflation for the week ended July 19 stood at 11.98 per cent, a tad lower than psychological level of 12 per cent.

On the economic growth, the RBI survey projected a GDP growth of 7.9 per cent against the RBI’s projection of 8 per cent for the current fiscal in its review announced recently.

“They, however, expect it to improve to 8 per cent in 2009-10,” a RBI statement said.

Reflecting the impact of rise in interest rates on India Inc bottomline, the survey projected a fall in corporate profit to 16 per cent in the current fiscal from 25 per cent expected in the previous survey.

At the same time, the survey forecast fiscal deficit to widen to 3.9 per cent of GDP in 2008-09, whereas the combined gross fiscal deficit is placed at 6.9 per cent of GDP.

On sectoral growth, it said real GDP originating in industry and services sector for the year 2008-09 could moderate to 7.5 and 9.5 per cent. The growth rates were forecast to be 8.1 and 9.7 per cent in the earlier survey.

The growth forecast for agriculture remains at 3 per cent as in the last survey. For the year 2009-10, these sectors are expected to grow at a rate of 3.3, 7.7 and 9.4 per cent, respectively.

Delhi-based economic think-tank NCAER had revised GDP growth downward to 7.8 per cent on Thursday against the earlier projection of 9 per cent for 2008-09.

“The diminished growth is on account of slower global growth and higher rate of inflation,” it said.

(PTI)

( This post is from an independent writer. The opinions and views expressed herein are those of the author and are not endorsed by APakistanNews.Com.)

Inflation may fall to 9 pc in March ’08: RBI survey

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