Why local elections may become less and less competitive
Sunday, May 11, 2008 at 10:05 pm Under World News
In Vote Like Thy Neighbor William Galston and Pietro Nivola bring to me some new insight on the reason for the partisan divide. And some realism about the remedies.
…41 percent of the voters in 1984 were located at or near the midpoint of the ideological spectrum, compared with only 28 percent in 2004. Meanwhile, the percentage of voters clustering toward the left and right tails of the spectrum rose from 10 to 23 percent.
They describe how people are increasingly likely to live near people with similar values and world views thus making communities less politically heterogeneous.
Our study shows that this geographical sorting worsens polarization in several ways. When counties become more homogeneous, it becomes harder to use redistricting to create more competitive Congressional districts. (Recent research indicates that gerrymandering accounts for, at the very most, one-third of noncompetitive districts in the House of Representatives.) When states become more homogeneous, presidential campaigns begin by conceding a large number of contests to the opposition, disheartening their supporters in those states and increasing the majority’s electoral advantage. Polarization feeds on itself.
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